In 2024, Germany’s gambling tax revenue remained stable at €2.9 billion ($2.99 billion), matching the figures from 2023. This consistency keeps Germany among the top EU treasuries benefiting from regulated gambling. However, a deeper analysis reveals some concerning trends that warrant attention.
One notable shift is in the performance of different gambling segments. Sports betting tax revenues saw a 5% increase in the first 11 months of 2024, indicating steady growth in this area. In contrast, online casino and slots tax revenues experienced a significant decline, dropping by 16% over the same period. According to data from H2 Gambling Capital, this contributes to a staggering 47% compound loss in this segment since 2022, highlighting a troubling trajectory for online gambling.
Industry observers have pointed to several potential reasons for this decline in online casino revenues. Tighter deposit limits, stricter advertising regulations, and heightened compliance requirements may be making it difficult for licensed operators to thrive. These restrictions could inadvertently push players toward unregulated offshore gambling sites, which face no such constraints and may offer more appealing conditions for gamblers.
The release of these figures has sparked renewed debate about Germany’s regulatory framework. Some stakeholders advocate for loosening certain controls to bolster the competitiveness of licensed operators and prevent tax revenues from leaking to illegal offshore betting operations. They highlight Germany’s estimated 20%-40% channelization rate for online gaming—far below the over 90% seen in countries like Denmark and Sweden—as evidence of regulatory shortcomings. Industry representatives also criticize the 5.3% turnover tax, arguing that it drives both gamblers and taxable revenues toward unregulated alternatives.
Read also: Norwegian Lottery Authority Warns Against Illegal Online Betting Ads
On the other hand, regulatory bodies like the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) offer a different perspective. They estimate that black market activity accounts for just 4% of total gambling in Germany, suggesting that the unregulated sector is not as significant a threat as some claim. The GGL maintains that the current regulations strike a necessary balance to protect consumers and ensure a sustainable market.
In the sports betting sector, the picture is similarly complex. Despite stable tax revenues, total stakes wagered have decreased by 15% since the introduction of the turnover tax in 2021. Industry stakeholders argue that the €7.3 billion in stakes recorded by sports betting operators in 2024 obscures the broader losses felt across the market, underscoring the tax’s broader impact.
Looking ahead, the future of Germany’s gambling tax revenue hinges on how regulators and the industry address these challenges. Balancing consumer protection with the economic viability of the regulated market will be key to sustaining Germany’s position as a leader in this sector.
